A simplified vulnerability model for the extensive liquefaction risk assessment of buildings     

Paolella  Luca  Spacagna  Rose Line  Chiaro  Gabriele  Modoni  Giuseppe 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2021,19(10):3933-3961

Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering - The quantitative assessment of natural risks offers a rational strategy to protect communities, undertake cost effective mitigation and plan the organic and...  相似文献   

Capture into first-order resonances and long-term stability of pairs of equal-mass planets     

Gabriele Pichierri  Alessandro Morbidelli  Aurélien Crida 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2018,130(8):54

Massive planets form within the lifetime of protoplanetary disks, and therefore, they are subject to orbital migration due to planet–disk interactions. When the first planet reaches the inner edge of the disk, its migration stops and consequently the second planet ends up locked in resonance with the first one. We detail how the resonant trapping works comparing semi-analytical formulae and numerical simulations. We restrict to the case of two equal-mass coplanar planets trapped in first-order resonances, but the method can be easily generalized. We first describe the family of resonant stable equilibrium points (zero-amplitude libration orbits) using series expansions up to different orders in eccentricity as well as a non-expanded Hamiltonian. Then we show that during convergent migration the planets evolve along these families of equilibrium points. Eccentricity damping from the disk leads to a final equilibrium configuration that we predict precisely analytically. The fact that observed multi-exoplanetary systems are rarely seen in resonances suggests that in most cases the resonant configurations achieved by migration become unstable after the removal of the protoplanetary disk. Here we probe the stability of the resonances as a function of planetary mass. For this purpose, we fictitiously increase the masses of resonant planets, adiabatically maintaining the low-amplitude libration regime until instability occurs. We discuss two hypotheses for the instability, that of a low-order secondary resonance of the libration frequency with a fast synodic frequency of the system, and that of minimal approach distance between planets. We show that secondary resonances do not seem to impact resonant systems at low amplitude of libration. Resonant systems are more stable than non-resonant ones for a given minimal distance at close encounters, but we show that the latter nevertheless play the decisive role in the destabilization of resonant pairs. We show evidence that as the planetary mass increases and the minimal distance between planets gets smaller in terms of mutual Hill radius, the region of stability around the resonance center shrinks, until the equilibrium point itself becomes unstable.  相似文献   

Ensemble modelling of ice cover for a reservoir affected by pumped‐storage operation and climate change     

Ulrike Gabriele Kobler  Martin Schmid 《水文研究》2019,33(20):2676-2690

Ensemble modelling was used to assess the robustness of projected impacts of pumped‐storage (PS) operation and climate change on reservoir ice cover. To this end, three one‐dimensional and a two‐dimensional laterally averaged hydrodynamic model were set up. For the latter, the strength of the impacts with increasing distance from the dam was also investigated. Climate change effects were simulated by forcing the models with 150 years of synthetic meteorological time series created with a weather generator based on available air temperature scenarios for Switzerland. Future climate by the end of the 21^st century was projected to shorten the ice‐covered period by ~2 months and decrease ice thicknesses by ~13 cm. Under current climate conditions, the ice cover would already be affected by extended PS operation. For example, the average probability of ice coverage on a specific day was projected to decrease by ~13% for current climate and could further be reduced from ~45% to ~10% for future climate. Overall, the results of all models were consistent. Although the number of winters without ice cover was projected to increase for all one‐dimensional models, studying individual segments of the two‐dimensional model showed that the impact was pronounced for segments close to the PS intake/outlet. In summary, the reservoir's ice cover is expected to partially vanish with higher probability of open water conditions closer to the PS intake/outlet.  相似文献   

Uncertainties in projected runoff over the conterminous United States     

Ignazio Giuntoli  Gabriele Villarini  Christel Prudhomme  David M. Hannah 《Climatic change》2018,150(3-4):149-162

Projections of runoff from global multi-model ensembles provide a valuable basis for the estimation of future hydrological extremes. However, projections suffer from uncertainty that originates from different error sources along the modeling chain. Hydrological impact studies have generally partitioned these error sources into global impact and global climate model (GIM and GCM, respectively) uncertainties, neglecting other sources, including scenarios and internal variability. Using a set of GIMs driven by GCMs under different representative concentration pathways (RCPs), this study aims to partition the uncertainty of future flows coming from GIMs, GCMs, RCPs, and internal variability over the CONterminous United States (CONUS). We focus on annual maximum, median, and minimum runoff, analyzed decadally over the twenty-first century. Results indicate that GCMs and GIMs are responsible for the largest fraction of uncertainty over most of the study area, followed by internal variability and to a smaller extent RCPs. To investigate the influence of the ensemble setup on uncertainty, in addition to the full ensemble, three ensemble configurations are studied using fewer GIMs (excluding least credible GIMs in runoff representation and GIMs accounting for vegetation and CO₂ dynamics), and excluding intermediate RCPs. Overall, the use of fewer GIMs has a minor impact on uncertainty for low and medium flows, but a substantial impact for high flows. Regardless of the number of pathways considered, RCPs always play a very small role, suggesting that improvement of GCMs and GIMs and more informed ensemble selections can yield a reduction of projected uncertainties.  相似文献   

Analysis of changes in the magnitude,frequency, and seasonality of heavy precipitation over the contiguous USA     

Mallakpour  Iman  Villarini  Gabriele 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,130(1-2):345-363

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Gridded daily precipitation observations over the contiguous USA are used to investigate the past observed changes in the frequency and magnitude of heavy...  相似文献   

Reconstruction of a destructive debris‐flow event via numerical modeling: the role of valley geometry on flow dynamics          下载免费PDF全文

Luca Schilirò  Fabio V. De Blasio  Carlo Esposito  Gabriele Scarascia Mugnozza 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2015,40(14):1847-1861

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Roles of methane and carbon dioxide in geological processes on Mars     

Goro Komatsu  Gian Gabriele Ori  Marco Cardinale  James M. Dohm  Victor R. Baker  David A. Vaz  Ryo Ishimaru  Noriyuki Namiki  Takafumi Matsui 《Planetary and Space Science》2011,59(2-3):169-181

We discuss in this paper possible roles of methane and carbon dioxide in geological processes on Mars. These volatiles in the martian crust may migrate upward from their sources either directly or via various traps (structural, sedimentary, ground ice, gas hydrates). They are then likely emitted to the atmosphere by seepage or through diverse vent structures. Though gas hydrates have never been directly detected on Mars, theoretical studies favor their presence in the crust and polar caps; they could have played an important role as significant gas reservoirs in the subsurface. The martian gas hydrates would possibly be a binary system of methane and carbon dioxide occupying clathrate cavities. Landforms such as mud volcanoes with well-known linkage to gas venting are extensively distributed on Earth, and methane is the primary gas involved. Thus, identification of these landforms on Mars could suggest that methane and possibly carbon dioxide have contributed to geological processes of the planet. For example, we present a newly identified field in Chryse Planitia where features closely resembling terrestrial mud volcanoes occur widely, though with no observable activity. We also present results of a preliminary search for possible recent or present-day, methane-emission zones in the regions over which enrichments of atmospheric methane have been reported.  相似文献   

Nonlinear sediment thickness increase on the western East Pacific Rise flank, 45°S     

Michael Horn  Gabriele Uenzelmann-Neben 《Geo-Marine Letters》2013,33(5):381-390

Sediment thickness was evaluated on the western flank of the East Pacific Rise (EPR) at 45°S, based on high-resolution seismic data gathered during cruise 213/2 of R/V Sonne in 2011. Two zones with distinctly different sediment thickness were identified, separated by a transitional zone bordering a pseudo-fault. Sediment in the more distal zone 2 is almost twice as thick (~120 m) as in zone 1 close to the EPR. This is in contrast to the expected progressive sedimentary column thickening with seafloor age and distance from the spreading axis. The younger of two seismic units detected within the sedimentary column (EPR-2) occurs mainly in the distal zone on crust older than 9 Ma, whereas on younger crust it is present only in small isolated bodies. Both sedimentary units drape the basement. The drape is interpreted to represent particle settling from suspension and a generally low regional primary productivity. The spatial variation in sediment thickness cannot be explained by existing models, and other processes considered in the present case are (1) higher productivity in the western sector of the survey area, where thicker sediments were observed (zone 2), (2) the formation of sediment drifts near basement highs (‘seamount effect’), due to flow of Lower Circumpolar Deep Water affecting sediment deposition, and (3) erosion and/or non-deposition of the younger EPR-2 unit, due to elevated bed shear stresses associated with eddies transferring kinetic energy to the seafloor  相似文献   

Seagrass ecophysiology meets ecological genomics: are we ready?     

Gabriele Procaccini  Sven Beer  Mats Björk  Jeanine Olsen  Silvia Mazzuca  Rui Santos 《Marine Ecology》2012,33(4):522-527

In March 2011, the Ecophysiology and Genetics Working Groups of the European Science Foundation COST Action ES 0906, entitled Seagrass Productivity: From Genes to Ecosystem Management, organized an exploratory workshop entitled “Linking Ecophysiology and Ecogenomics in Seagrass Systems”. The goal of the workshop was to discuss how to integrate comparative gene expression studies with physiological processes such as photosynthetic performance, carbon and nitrogen utilization and environmental adaptation. The main questions discussed for integrative research related to mechanisms of carbon utilization, light requirements, temperature effects and natural variation in pH and ocean acidification. It was concluded that the seagrass research community is still in the nascent stages of linking ecophysiology with genomic responses, as carbon and nitrogen metabolism of seagrasses have not been sufficiently well studied. Likewise, genomic approaches have only been able to assign meaningful interpretations to a handful of differentially expressed genes. Nevertheless, the way forward has been established.  相似文献   

Investigating on the 1920 Garfagnana earthquake (M_w=6.5): Evidences of site effects in Villa Collemandina (Tuscany,Italy)     

Roberto De Ferrari  Gabriele Ferretti  Simone Barani  Daniele Spallarossa 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2010

This paper presents a comprehensive ground response study for the municipality of Villa Collemandina in Northern Tuscany (Italy). This site was selected following a macroseismic analysis of the 1920 Garfagnana earthquake (M_w=6.5), which, at Villa Collemandina, produced damage and losses that were larger than at any other site near the earthquake epicentre, thus indicating the presence of possible site effects. Hence, both experimental and numerical methods are applied in order to investigate the ground response at different locations within the Villa Collemandina municipality. Results obtained from the spectral analysis of earthquake recordings using the reference site method and those from a 2-dimensional dynamic simulation reveal the presence of site effects due to the buried geomorphology (basin-like effects), allowing us to explain the severe damage and losses produced by the 1920 Garfagnana earthquake. As a further result, horizontal to vertical spectral ratio techniques and 1D soil modelling are proved to be inadequate for an effective characterization of the ground response at sites that, like Villa Collemandina, present a complex local geology.  相似文献